In the FCS Huddle: QB openings not for the faint of heart

NCAA Football Betting Lines

02/06/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You don't have to be Tim Tebow to be the most scrutinized quarterback around.

The light in the microscope usually shines brightest on any team's signal- caller.

Considering big expectations follow the sport's marquee position, it only intensifies for the quarterback who is replacing a highly accomplished senior.

Such situations will be prevalent this coming season across the Football Championship Subdivision.

There are some big shoes to fill nationally.

Whoever steps in for Bo Levi Mitchell at Eastern Washington faces one of the more daunting tasks. Mitchell, of course, was the Most Outstanding Player in the Eagles' 2010 FCS championship game win and captured the 2011 Walter Payton Award (sponsored by Fathead.com) as the nation's outstanding player.

His successor, who is trying to replace Mitchell's 7,505 passing yards and 70 touchdown passes of the last two seasons, could be either junior Anthony Vitto or redshirt freshman Vernon Adams.

Vitto has more experience in offensive coordinator Aaron Best's system and holds the top spot going into spring practice in late March, but Adams is more mobile - he passed for 5,234 yards and rushed for another 1,263 yards in his final two high school seasons - and was the scout team's offensive player of the year this past season.

The situation could change if Kyle Padron, who unseated Mitchell as SMU's starting quarterback in 2009, comes to EWU. The big Texan (6-foot-4, 233 pounds) is seeking to transfer from SMU and is expected to visit with the Eagles' program.

Lehigh's Chris Lum tied for second behind Mitchell in the Payton Award voting and his replacement is much more set with senior Mike Colvin. He has good size - 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds - with excellent arm strength. He already has played in 22 career games, often as a change of pace run/pass-option quarterback.

Colvin has rushed for seven touchdowns in his career, although he struggled in his only career start, replacing an injured Lum in a game at New Hampshire two years ago.

Northern Iowa's Jared Lanpher played well against Youngstown State last season - throwing for 238 yards and two touchdowns - when he started in place of an injured Tirrell Rennie. The redshirt sophomore saw action in four other games and could have the inside track to replacing Rennie this coming season, although redshirt freshman Sawyer Kollmorgan has also impressed coaches since he arrived on campus.

At Chattanooga, quarterback B.J. Coleman hopes to be NFL-bound, but he missed a lot of time as a senior because of a shoulder injury. It opened the door for Terrell Robinson to replace him and win Southern Conference Freshman of the Week honors three times last season. He's a run-first quarterback, having rushed for 417 yards and thrown for only 336 yards.

Robinson will have competition from redshirt freshman Jacob Huesman, son of Mocs head coach Russ Huesman. His playing style is similar to Robinson's.

New Liberty head coach Turner Gill has to replace do-everything quarterback Mike Brown. The most experienced of the Flames' returnees is redshirt senior Tyler Brennan, who has appeared in 22 career games - often in mop-up time - but was injured during the second half of last season. He's more of a drop- back passer than the dual-threat Brown.

Redshirt junior Brian Hudson is also a pocket passer and has the strongest arm among the signal-callers. Still another of Brown's possible successors, redshirt sophomore Gabe Henderson, follows the Brown script in that he was a wide receiver in 2010 - catching 10 passes - before transitioning to a quarterback last year, when he was a redshirt.

Josh Woodrum, coming off his redshirt freshman season, has the high school accolades, though not the experience of his Liberty teammates.

Jackson State signed one the FCS' top incoming freshmen last week in Lamontiez Ivy out of East St. Louis. He will get a shot at replacing Casey Therriault, although 6-5 redshirt senior Dedric McDonald has been the backup for two years and redshirt sophomore Tevin Chapman is a good runner who is also experienced in the system.

Jacksonville has to replace Josh McGregor, who ended his career 23rd on the all-time FCS list with 11,230 passing yards and sixth in touchdown passes with 111. Trevius Folston and Kade Bell are returning, but a signee or two will join them at the Pioneer Football League power.

The 6-7 Folston backed up McGregor as a freshman last season, while Bell, the son of Jacksonville head coach Kerwin Bell, redshirted in his first season.

Plenty of other FCS programs are looking for a new starting quarterback after losing a key senior. Included are New Hampshire (Kevin Decker), Central Arkansas (Nathan Dick), Norfolk State (Chris Walley), Georgia Southern (Jaybo Shaw), Richmond (Aaron Corp) and Wofford (Mitch Allen).

Also, there's Holy Cross (Ryan Taggart), Samford (Dustin Taliaferro), Furman (Chris Forcier), Indiana State (Ronnie Fouch), Maine (Warren Smith), Portland State (Connor Kavanaugh), Southeast Missouri State (Matt Scheible), South Dakota (Dante Warren), Brown (Kyle Newhall-Caballero), Yale (Patrick Witt) and Butler (Andrew Huck).

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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